TheTucsonFoothills

foreclosures in the Tucson Foothills

Foreclosure activity for 85718 from RealtyTrac;

The Foreclosure rate –
the percentage of  properties that received a foreclosure filing in the most recent month.

The number of foreclosure properties sold in the last 12 months;

 

Average Sales Price, foreclosures vs normal sales,

 

More so than ever foreclosures are a minor and dwindling influence on the Tucson Foothills real estate market.

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in contract last week,

That’s from Monday 5/21 thru Sunday 5/27

18 single family homes went to contract - fewer than in the recent past and two of them have already fallen out of contract, leaving just 16 new contracts.

12 of them are priced from $219,000 to $590,000

then one each at $739,000, $999,900, $1,350,000 & $1,450,000.
So fewer contracts overall but at least we’re still seeing some action at a million and up.

16 to contract

for contracts from the previous week 5/14 – 5/20 see > in contract this past week, 5/20

And there’s no doubt that fewer homes are going to contract due to the low supply of homes in some price ranges. I face it every day with buyers I’m working with as do many other agents. And as a result it appears that some buyers are now more willing to compromise and are putting homes in contract that in the past were bypassed for one reason or another  – because of an iffy location or a difficult floor plan. Things like that that are difficult or impossible to change.

We’re at a new low, just 291 single family homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills.

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"This might be a strong season, but there's a good chance we'll continue down for a year still," said Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University. "There's too much uncertainty."

Home prices lowest since 2002
CNNMoney

Home prices hit new post-bubble lows in March, according to a report out Tuesday.

Average home prices were down 2.6% from 12 months earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major markets. Home priceshave not been this low since mid-2002.

"While there has been improvement in some regions, housing prices have not turned," said David Blitzer, spokesman for S&P.

Read all about it > Home prices lowest since 2002

Who am I to question Robert Schiller but, honestly, from what I’ve seen, I’d swear we’ve turned the corner.

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how much more would they have sold for had they been more realistically priced from the beginning

In Skyline Country Club 6900 N Gleneagles Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold the other day for $750,000 from an $819,000 list price. But it started out in 2010 at $1,150,000 and then called it quits and returned a year later at $919,000. (listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizo 478302)

In Hacienda del Sol estates 4971 N Avenida De Vizcaya Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $800,000 the other day from a $995,000 list price (listed by Long Realty).  But it too was listed before (different broker – different agent) asking $1,399,000.

And, last but not least, across the street in Cat 10 3731 E Sumo Septimo , Tucson, AZ 85718 started out in 07 at $1,500,000 (also, different agent – different broker) and sold today for $800,000 from an $894,000 list price (listed by Long Realty).

It’s impossible to say how much more they’d have gotten, but given that the market has only gone down-down-down the odds are they’d have done better then than they did now.
And, not the least of which, it would have been over and done with so much sooner.

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it’s a $500 thousand kind of day

4 contracts today, at $559,000, $579,000, $595,000 and $599,000

in the $5’s,

not much else so far,

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another one calls it quits

Built by Bartholomew Custom Homes in 2002, 2087 E Desert Garden was not just on the leading edge, it was the leading edge of the ultra-luxe spec home movement that took wing in Pima Canyon at that time. It first sold in April 2003 for $2,200,000 – and was described as “… Elegantly appointed hand carved cantera stone, Majestic pillars & European ambiance …”

I’ll say,
 
It’s not my style at all, but I held it open a few times back then and 
whether or not it was their cup of tea, most visitors couldn’t help marveling
at how incredibly lavish it was. The design, finishes and craftsmanship
were a breakthrough for spec homes.

But that was 02, 03. And in Feb 08 it was listed again, this time for $3,300,000, and after 4+ years and a few price cuts it still remains unsold and was canceled yesterday listed at $2,495,000 ($431/sf).  But nothing’s selling at $400/sf these days, so that’s no surprise.

2087 E Desert Garden Drive
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

if you’re selling in the Canyons this is not good news,

though you may see it differently if you’re a buyer, 

7417 N Secret Canyon Drive, a posh 2009 built spec home was listed for $4,500,000 ($622/sf) when it started out in October 08 and sold today for $2,050,000 ($283/sf) from an already greatly reduced list price of 2,995,000 ($414/sf). (listed by long Realty)

My goodness how could this happen, and in the Canyons no less.
Very easily really if you look at actual sale prices in the Canyons over the last 4 years.
7454 N Secret Canyon, also a posh spec home, started out asking $5,000,000 ($722/sf) in March 09 and ended up selling as a foreclosure for $1,850,000 ($267/sf) last May.
And down the road apiece 7203 N Cloud Canyon Place, which was not a spec, started out at $3,250,000 in Feb 07 and ended up getting $1,400,000 ($252/sf) last November, after more than four years. And prior to those three sales there was a long dry spell, with the last sale in the Canyons in July 2008 (ancient history), when 7550 N Secret Canyon Drive sold for $2,600,000 ($490/sf). The way it was.

So while the only 3 sales in the Canyons in recent history sold in the $252 to $283/sf range, the 5 homes remaining for sale are still in the $400 to $620/sf range – which may not go down so easy. And, to boot, 3508 E Secret Canyon Place, on the market since July 2010 and listed at $3,200,000 ($503/sf) was cancelled today. Coincidence? (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)  Stay tuned.

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the last hurrah

Traditionally Memorial Day is the end of our high-season for home sales here in the Tucson foothills. Not that everyone closes up shop and stops buying and selling but the pace of sales does slow down for the summer months. And it usually slows more for homes at the higher price ranges, where we can least afford a slowdown. So as we enter the triple digit months it’s a good time to recap where the market stands.

There are 299 single family homes for sale - with a measly 14 of them as distress sales  (9 short sales & 5 foreclosures or 4.7% of total inventory) And by the way, is the alleged shadow inventory ever going to show its face. 

164 of them are listed from $0 to $599,999
68 from $600,000 to $999,000
31 from $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
17 from $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
19 from $2,000,000 & up

287 homes sold since Jan 1 – with 53 distress sales (21 short sales & 32 foreclosures or 18.5% of total sales)

228 sold from $0 to $599,999
35 from $600,000 to $999,999
17 from $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
  7 from $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
  0 from $2,000,000 & up (though there are 2 in escrow listed at over $2mil)

So the bottom of the market is the place to be - with 168 homes for sale and 228 sold in 5 and a half months there’s a very lean 4 month supply of homes
Moving on up to $600k were looking at a 10.5 month supply
At $1.0 to $1.499 it also works out to about 10 months
$1.5 to $1.999 is up to 13 months
and at $2.0 & up it’s still anyone’s guess

all told they sold for an average/median of $473,147/$368,000 @ average of $161/sf

during the same period last year,
252 homes sold for an average/median of $478,936/$413,000 @ average of $165/sf

So a few more homes sold this year than last but they sold for a few dollars less

Have a Happy Memorial Day!

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eventually they come around

7707 N Ancient Indian Drive, a 2010 built spec in Pima Canyon, first listed for $2,250,000 in Jan 2010, sold today for $1,400,000 after finally dropping to $1.495 – just 37% from where it started. And think of all the carrying costs, taxes alone last year were $17,691.

But what can you expect - by the time it hit the market in 2010 the spec home frenzy that gripped the foothills during the boom was a distant memory - yet Ancient Indian was priced as if it were still 2006.

7707 N Ancient Indian Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

I mentioned it on these pages when it was listed in Jan 2010 > just what the doctor ordered <

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on this hot day in May

two good contracts – 6426 N Desert Wind Circle, a beautifully designed and built house in the upper reaches of Ventana, listed at $1,350,000 ($324/sf). That’s after about 7 months on the market.

And in Alta Vista, which has been uncharacteristically quiet lately, 6651 N Placita De Chubasco, on the market since 2009, after having started out at a cool $2.1, went to contract today at somewhat less cool (at least for the seller) $1.450 ($328/sf) – about 30% off where it started. Both listed by Long Realty - 6426 N Desert Wind & 6651 N Placita De Chubasco <

Meanwhile, also in Ventana, 7200 E Desert Moon Loop & 6201 N Whaleback Place, are both back on the market after a week or two in escrow. Deals fall thru, it’s a total drag for everyone, but it happens. Both listed by Long Realty 

+ 5 price reductions on homes listed from $287,900 to $475,000

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